Social movements countering global autocracy

All statistics on democracy paint the same picture time and time again: global democracy is in recession, while autocracies are on the march.

DIPD has spoken with Hardy Merriman, President of the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC), and according to him, we must reverse the democratic recession by expanding to new methods.

He underlines this in his report, 'Fostering a Fourth Democratic Wave', which focuses on how nonviolent social movements can lead a fourth democratic wave.

“  Autocratic leaders eliminate bureaucratic institutions, which are intended to check government power. Then they target opposition parties’ legitimacy, eroding their ability to operate. And they attack civil society. Independent media outlets get shut down, national and international organisations are restricted, and civil movements are stifled. 

Democracies are taken for granted

One reason why democracy is in recession, according to Merriman, is that democratic governments have taken democracy for granted. “I don't want to say that democracies have failed, but I do think that the magnitude and size of effort needed to address the global autocratic wave have not been adequate.”

Merriman’s point is underlined by studies of democracy, including the acclaimed V-Dem Institute, which shows that 72% of the world’s population lives in autocracies and that the number has been on the rise in recent years.

To turn around the autocratic tendency, it is crucial that democratic countries realise the magnitude of the threat posed by autocracies to the global democratic future.

Autocrats are organised

Authoritarians have demonstrated a high willingness to cooperate with each other and protect one another when pressed by democratic forces.

“Autocrats are openly trying to undermine democracies, and they're openly trying to stop democratic movements. They are supporting each other; they are organising,” Merriman states and continues:

“We saw this when Lukashenko faced large-scale protests following the 2018 Belarus presidential elections. Putin offered assistance and contributed to the stabilisation of the autocratic government in Belarus.”

“Growing authoritarian influence also limits the ability of multilateral institutions such as the United Nations to fulfil their mandate and prevents them from taking effective actions in support of peace and human rights. And within the European Union, we see an example of authoritarian influence with the Hungarian government utilising its veto threat to try to block efforts to advance accountability and strengthen democratic governance.”

"   Our best opportunity to strengthen democracy is not through armed conflicts, international conventions, or sanctions. It is engagement with, support, and enabling of social movements and civil society. We must believe in the strength of civil society and support social movements as they can take root.

Dismantling democratic pillars

Even in democratic countries, politicians with authoritarian tendencies are highly organised and are frequently supported by foreign autocrats. Merriman identifies three targets in democracies that are attacked by what Merriman refers to as aspiring demagogues.

“Autocratic leaders eliminate bureaucratic institutions, which are intended to check government power. Then they target opposition parties’ legitimacy, eroding their ability to operate. And they attack civil society. Independent media outlets get shut down, national and international organisations are restricted, and civil movements are stifled,” Merriman says and adds:

“These initiatives do not happen all at once. The development happens through a systematic dismantling of the democratic pillars, which paves the way for an authoritarian regime.”

Civil society movements can support democratic development

If we are to overcome this autocratisation and turn things around for democracy, it requires, according to Hardy Merriman, that we employ democratic means. He points towards nonviolent social movements.

Nonviolent social movements were the seedbed of democratic change in the 20^th century, according to research that Merriman has collected and presented in his report.

“Our best opportunity to strengthen democracy is not armed conflicts, international conventions, or sanctions. It is engagement with, support, and enabling of social movements and civil society. We must believe in the strength of civil society and support social movements as they can take root.”

Movements can tear down regimes

Social movements have a documented ability to apply pressure to regimes and create real democratic change.

“Omar al-Bashir is widely regarded as one of the most brutal autocrats of the 21st and 20th centuries. If I told you in 2018 that he was going to fall because of pressure from a movement led by women and trade unions in Sudan using nonviolent tactics, most people wouldn't have believed me, right?” Merriman exemplifies.

“Research tells us that popular, nonviolent pro-democracy movements are one of the most powerful drivers of democracy worldwide. These movements aren’t something foreign nations can force into a society. But they can be supported to foster their growth so that they have a decisive impact.”

Support civil society in practice 

Merriman’s central point in creating favourable conditions for democratic countries is to create an accessible environment for the actors, who work bottom-up.

The report offers numerous propositions, from specific policy recommendations to general principles, for how to support social movements in practice. Merriman suggests that the first step for any institution that wishes to support movements is to reach out to civil society, ask what they need and listen to responses.

When support is provided, it should be done in a way that supports local ownership and empowerment, rather than external control. Movement supporters should also make greater efforts to coordinate with each other. For example, Merriman thinks that direct government support for specific movements is often not advisable, and nongovernmental organisations are sometimes better providers. However, governments may be able to be helpful to nongovernmental organisations, or take other actions, such as using diplomatic channels or sanctions, that may help movements.

Initiatives for democracy

On a larger scale, Merriman suggests that governments should focus on creating stronger international mechanisms to counter democratic backsliding. Democracy should be elevated to a key national interest in both the US and EU, and commitment to human rights should be renewed.

Merriman also proposes the creation of a new entity of leading democracies, establishing a mechanism to hold accountable officials involved in bolstering authoritarianism, and the establishment of the ‘Right to Assistance’ as an international norm. This is the idea that people, no matter where they live, have the right to request assistance in defending their fundamental rights.

Through cooperation between democratic actors on all levels, Merriman believes that we can counter global autocratisation and foster the fourth democratic wave.