Azerbaijan's invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh sends 100,000 refugees to Armenia and threatens the stability of the young democracy

On the morning of September 19, residents of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in the South Caucasus awoke to the sound of bombardments and military vehicles in the streets. It was the sound of Azerbaijan rolling into the region to take control. 

Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnically Armenian region that has been autonomous since the 1990s, self-declaring as the Republic of Artsakh. The region is surrounded by Azerbaijani territory and is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. 

Despite considerable public pressure in Armenia, the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, chose not to deploy his troops into the conflict. This allowed Azerbaijan to gain military control relatively easily. And the next day, leaders from Artsakh and Azerbaijan signed a ceasefire agreement in which Artsakh surrendered. 

Since then, Azerbaijan's President, Ilham Aliyev, has succeeded in incorporating the region into his country, while over a hundred thousand residents of Nagorno-Karabakh have left their homes and fled to Armenia. 

From the shadow of the Soviet Union to today's conflict 

Nagorno-Karabakh has been a multi-ethnic region for centuries. During the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh was part of the Azerbaijani Soviet Republic, but the population, consisting of 75% ethnic Armenians, continuously sought to become part of the Armenian Soviet Republic instead. Local leaders in the 1980s wrote several letters to Moscow and even held a referendum to demonstrate the pro-Armenian sentiment of the population. However, Moscow refused, opting to grant the region a degree of local autonomy.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, both Soviet republics became independent states, and the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute took on new and more intense dimensions. The issue of Nagorno-Karabakh was no longer about making the most convincing appeal to the Moscow office but about which of the two countries was stronger on the battlefield.  

In 1988, a war broke out between the two states, lasting until 1994, with mercenaries from Russia, Ukraine, and Afghanistan involved. Armenia emerged victorious from this war, taking control of both Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding ethnically Azerbaijani areas, allowing the region to be connected to Armenia. The conflict displaced over 700,000 ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenian territories and nearly half a million ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijani territories.  

In September 2020, Azerbaijan initiated a military offensive in the lost territories, leading to another war between the two countries. This time, Azerbaijan won and recaptured the areas surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh itself remained independent but was connected to Armenia only through the Lachin corridor, a narrow mountain road running through Azerbaijan. The road was the sole access point for Nagorno-Karabakh to the outside world, food, and support from Armenia, protected by a large contingent of Russian peacekeeping troops.    

Russia’s role 

Throughout the conflict, Russia has played the role of both mediator and power player in the South Caucasus. The country is the dominant military force in the region and has acted as a peace mediator after the wars. Russia has a significant number of peacekeeping forces stationed in the border area, and Putin considers the area to be firmly within Russia's sphere of interest. Traditionally, Russia has been allied with Armenia, while Azerbaijan has been allied with Turkey due to their shared linguistic, ethnic, and religious ties.  

On June 15, 2023, Azerbaijan violated the terms of the ceasefire and blocked the Lachin corridor. The government justified the blockade, suspecting that the corridor was being used to deliver Armenian weapons to the republic. This cut off the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh from the outside world, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis as food and aid could no longer reach the population. Several states and international organisations condemned the action as a form of hybrid warfare and an attempt at ethnic cleansing. 

Attack on the autonomous republic 

Returning to the morning of September 19, Azerbaijan began what they described as "local anti-terror activities." Azerbaijan accused Armenia of having troops in the region, which would be a violation of the ceasefire, and demanded that all soldiers in the region lay down their weapons and that the Republic of Artsakh should be dissolved and incorporated into Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan sent troops into the region and launched artillery attacks in several areas. Azerbaijan claimed that they were not targeting civilian positions, but witnesses reported that attacks occurred near major cities and densely populated areas. 

At the same time, Azerbaijan reopened the Lachin corridor and issued messages via leaflets and text messages to the local population, urging them to evacuate the area. These messages were met with suspicion, and residents accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing. By the end of the day, 27 people had died and more than 200 were wounded.  

The local authorities in Artsakh surrendered the next day and signed a ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan. Since then, the region has been incorporated into Azerbaijan. As a result of the agreement, the vast majority of Nagorno-Karabakh's inhabitants have fled to Armenia. So far, more than 100,000 of the region's 120,000 Armenian residents have had to leave their homes. 

Alliances breaking down and forming 

In addition to the humanitarian disaster, the invasion has significant implications for the power balance in the Caucasus region. Russia's reluctance to protect Armenia's interests has shaken the two states' previously close alliance to its core. In the long run, this could lead to Armenia withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military alliance of six former Soviet states. Armenia is the only member state in the Caucasus region, and its membership has been crucial in supporting Russia's military engagement in the region. 

In contrast, Azerbaijan and Turkey have become stronger in the region, and the two countries have developed a closer partnership with Russia. At a recent international summit, Azerbaijan's President Aliyev personally thanked Putin for Russia's role in the peace negotiations. 

Several analysts suspect that the three states potentially had a common interest in Armenia militarily engaging in the conflict, as this would enable Azerbaijan to occupy southern Armenia and thereby connect Azerbaijan and Turkey. If this had occurred, Russia would have had better access to Turkey via Azerbaijan, allowing Putin to better circumvent the trade sanctions that the country has been subject to since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. 

Domestic political turmoil 

The development of the long-standing conflict with Azerbaijan has created significant political challenges internally within Armenian society. There is immense political anger and widespread protests against Prime Minister Pashinyan, as many believe he failed Artsakh's residents by keeping Armenia out of the conflict. 

Pashinyan was also in power when Armenia lost the war in 2020 and is therefore held accountable by many for Azerbaijan now having control over the entire region. 

The influx of many refugees also poses a significant economic challenge for the relatively poor country. Armenia's population of three million is expected to grow by more than three percent. People who now need to be resettled and start a new life from scratch. 

Armenia's democratic future is at risk 

According to the V-Dem Institute, Armenia is one of the world's top ten countries in terms of democratisation over the past decade. Since 2018, when mass demonstrations led to the removal of the previous government in favour of the Pashinyan administration, the country has made significant progress in all democratic parameters. However, after the 2020 war, society has increasingly been challenged by severe political polarisation regarding the government's handling of Nagorno-Karabakh and attacks on press freedom, which have led to a significant setback for Armenia's democracy. 

DIPD spoke with Sarineh Abrahamian, a young political activist from the left-leaning ARF party, who has shared her perspectives on the current political situation:  

“The level of trust in political institutions has been gone, and there is a feeling of disappointment and despair in Armenian society. This crisis has exacerbated divisions and led to deep polarization. Pashinyan has been silencing opposing voices and banning Armenians who criticise him from entering Armenia. In the National Assembly, Pashinyan's leading party, Civil Contract, holds the majority and completely ignores the opposition. This has led to a decline in democracy and the ignorance of other voices in Armenian society. Armenia's geopolitical position influences the country's stability and democracy.” 

She continues: “There is a need for inclusive, transparent, and democratic governance to address the current challenges. The Armenian government should engage in open dialogue with the opposition and civil society, consider the needs of refugees, and ensure that democratic principles are upheld in managing the refugee crisis.” 

As described by Sarineh Abrahamian, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and the large refugee influx now threaten to exacerbate political polarisation dramatically and undermine cohesion within Armenian society. It remains uncertain whether the young democracy will overcome the numerous challenges and once again become a global pioneer.