Are African democracies crisis-resistant?

Stig Jensen, Associate Professor, Centre for African Studies, University of Copenhagen.

The numerous military coups that have occurred in recent years and received a lot of media attention in the West show that democracies on the African continent are under pressure. At the same time, there is a lack of coverage when those in power in facade democracies consolidate their authoritarian power through manipulated elections, as we have seen in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. And the media is completely absent when the opposition wins democratic elections and creates the foundation for regime change, as recently happened in Malawi, the Seychelles, and Zambia. 

The examples above illustrate worrying tendencies in the West created by the combination of a selective view of Africa with a lack of interest, insight, and fundamental understanding of the variation and, notably, the complexity associated with the recent political developments on the continent. 

Perceptions of the military coups  

The recent military coups are in line with the increasingly central role of the military in African society, which has become more visible due to both local conflicts and military coups. At the same time, the military is taking an increasingly prominent role in political-administrative systems. This development has contributed to different perceptions and uncertainties about whether there have been military coups. 

The mainstream perception is that the recent military coups include the following countries: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, Sudan, and Gabon. My analysis also includes the regime changes in Chad (2021) and Zimbabwe (2017). In both countries, the military played a central role in the transition away from the presidents, Idriss Déby and Robert Mugabe. 

In my analysis of the military coups of recent years, the following commonalities become clear: 

Dissatisfaction with the countries' leadership prior to the coup. This dissatisfaction leads to relatively bloodless military coups. The new military leadership presents the coup as necessary to protect the interests of the nation and the people. The new regime portrays their power takeover as a temporary transition period to create the conditions for civilian rule. 

However, none of the countries new military leadership has handed over power as promised. 

Democracies are under pressure from all sides  

Despite societal differences and the enormous complexity of the continent, democracies in Africa are currently under intense, growing pressure, both internally and externally. 

The military has both solidified its domestic political position and proven itself capable of delivering change by achieving power and putting democracies on standby. Yet, the future role of the military in governance is uncertain. 

This is due to several factors. Firstly, the military has traditionally, and increasingly is, a key domestic political role in most national power elites through combating and controlling civil society groups, which is an increasingly important function. 

The military plays a crucial role in the security architecture in an African context, fundamentally different from the West, where the military's primary function is to protect the nation from external threats. 

Additionally, the military's ability to seize power is linked to their organisation, access to weapons, and strengthened social position. Western investments and training programmes have contributed to this. 

At the same time, there is often uncertainty among citizens about the military’s motives and ambitions during coups. The explanation lies in the tension between a desire for increased power and the necessity of intervention and deposition. 

The cohesiveness of the military  

Military coups, which have been followed by counter-coups, also create enormous uncertainty about the cohesiveness of the military. 

At one extreme is Sudan, which, with open conflicts between different military units, has developed into a comprehensive civil war. 

On the other hand, the military in Niger has so far shown strong cohesion, despite massive external sanctions, especially from the West, the African Union (AU), and ECOWAS (the regional West African co-operation organisation). The latter has threatened Niger with military intervention to restore democracy.  

Poor governance and duplicities both frighten and hinder 

Well-functioning political and administrative systems are fundamental to democracies. Therefore, it is highly problematic and toxic for democracies when the increasingly prevalent notion is that the national political-administrative systems in Africa are part of the problem, not the solution. 

Since the end of the Cold War, the West has used its leading position in the unipolar world order to intervene in the national machinery of African societies and, through that, dictate economic, political, and administrative reforms.  
 
The West's state-building projects based on democracy are under double attack, internally from several military coups, authoritarian facade democracies, and popular protests, and externally from the new geopolitical reality of a multipolar world order, which offers new opportunities for African states. 

The new geopolitical landscape  

The new geopolitical landscape, with more and increasingly active non-Western actors in Africa, contributes to governance uncertainties. For example, Russia has found it possible to niche-export military and other support, for which there is growing demand, especially from authoritarian leaders. 

Countries in the Middle East have increased their economic and military support for particular non-governmental actors, for example, in the conflict-ridden Sahel region. China's influence on the continent is also significant but changing. Recently, the great power has invested heavily in the Belt and Road Initiative and seems increasingly concerned about the implications of growing political instability and conflicts in Africa. 

Since the turn of the millennium, the African Union and regional African cooperation institutions have been fighting for democracy and sanctioning countries that depose national democracies. The big question is whether the combination of the growing number of unconstitutional changes in regimes and the multipolar world order means a change of course. For example, five out of 15 member states are suspended by ECOWAS. Are the African institutions' sanction policies for democracies deeply rooted or remnants of the unipolar world order? 

Civil society demands change but shows apathy and distrust in the establishment  

An active civil society is a prerequisite for well-functioning democracies. In recent years, there has been an almost explosive development in national political activism on the African continent based on civil society. The immediate expectation is that growing activism benefits democratic development, but several factors actually indicate the opposite effect.    

This is because popular protests have been used as a lever for more authoritarian leadership with sanctions that reduce citizens' democratic rights, such as military coups. 

Civil society groups in Africa are characterised by great change and heterogeneity, with aspects such as city and rural, gender, age, religion, education, and ethnicity playing a role. Nevertheless, young, disaffected, often unemployed urban men with a self-perception of being marginalised have become a power factor. They mobilise through social media for protests against the authorities. Dissatisfaction and mistrust in traditional as well as elected leaders and institutions are widespread. The criticism is rooted in the perception of a lack of representativeness and exclusion from established institutions by leaders who often have roots in the old liberation movements or traditional elites. 

Afrobarometer surveys in nations with recent military coups, such as Gabon, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, have shown that these nations have a pragmatic approach to governance. Here, there is popular support for and acceptance of the military takeover. 

Political apathy is growing, especially among the youth, resulting in abstention from voting in elections and participating in formal democratic processes. There is a fundamental lack of belief that participation will contribute to societal change. Surveys conducted by Afrobarometer in established democracies like Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa also support this trend. 

There seems to be a trend towards the idea of 'rather peace than free elections'. 

The simultaneous crises challenge governance in Africa  

The above-mentioned shows that governance in African nations is facing increasingly difficult conditions, including challenges in addressing the impatience and expectations of civil society and other actors for immediate improvements. In addition, there are multiple and concurrent pressing crises, such as the economic crisis, security crisis, demographic crisis, environmental crisis, and climate crisis. Not to mention the democratic and autocratic crisis, which is a result of declining public trust in politicians and a lack of legitimacy for the authority of political institutions. 

The times are changing in Africa. The trend of the 1990s, with an increasing number of democratic countries, has recently been replaced by growing popular discontent, more military coups, and increasingly authoritarian forms of governance. 

There are new conditions resulting from the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape and looming simultaneous crises. With many challenges and growing uncertainties, the recovery of democracy on the African continent will require crisis resilience anchored in strong national political-administrative systems with solid popular support.